Wednesday, 02 April 2025 Issue#025
Welcome the this weeks edition of Honor & Purpose.
There is a lot of noise out there, and when you are trying to plan for post-military life, it only intensifies. This week, we're cutting through the noise to deliver clarity on some important topics: a cooling job market, shifting housing trends, and how to leverage it all for your advantage. Let's get to it!
Homebuilder Inventory is at 2009 Levels: What that Means if You're in the Market.
At a recent speech to investors, the CEO of Lennar (a major homebuilder) stated "We do not see the seasonal pickup typically associated with the beginning of the spring selling season". This means inventory levels of newly constructed homes is growing, in fact they have been creeping up steadily since February 2023. This may sound bad, however if you are a buyer there are some advantages to this type of scenario.
Builders are motivated to reduce their inventory. The longer they hold those homes the more it costs them. This usually means buyers can see some pretty significant incentives. Lennar spent the equivalent of 13% of home sales on buyer incentives—up from 1.5% in Q2 2022. That equates to $52,000 in buyer incentives on a $400k home!
Any Realtor will tell you that housing markets are local and can vary widely depending on where you are looking. However, with the most recent data we can see some regional trends beginning to form. The sunbelt is experiencing the biggest pop in inventory levels. As you can see from the map below, central Florida, the Gulf Coast, and Texas have the largest increase compared to pre-pandemic levels. Buyers in these areas may have the most leverage when looking at newly constructed homes.
Trying to time the market is impossible, but staying informed on market trends will help ensure you are getting the best deal if you're looking to buy in the near future, good luck out there.
Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling
The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of cooling, as job openings in February 2025 dropped to 7.57 million, marking the lowest level since September 2024 and nearing figures last seen in early 2021. This decline from January’s revised total of 7.76 million reflects a gradual slowdown in labor market activity, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Economists had anticipated slightly higher numbers, but the report underscores a broader trend of reduced hiring and increased caution among employers.
The February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed that hiring remained steady at 5.4 million, while the quits rate—a measure of worker confidence—fell to 2%, its lowest point in a decade. This drop suggests growing uncertainty among workers about their ability to secure better opportunities elsewhere. Layoffs, meanwhile, have begun to rise modestly, adding to concerns about potential economic stagnation or even recession.
Despite these challenges, the labor market retains some resilience. The hiring rate held steady at 3.4%, and job openings remain above pre-pandemic levels, indicating that while the market is cooling, it has not collapsed. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, noted that the data reflects softening conditions but is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve’s stance on maintaining stable interest rates as it monitors inflation trends.
For someone just entering the labor market this isn't the greatest news, but it isn't the end of the world either. This is where transitioning service members need to double down on their networking efforts and really pay attention to how they describe their skillsets in resumes and places like LinkedIn. Jobs are still available, but competition is heating up and only those prepared to compete will have success in this type of job market.
